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BERYLLS STATEMENTS

BERYLLS STATEMENTS

Here you can find the latest statements from our partners and experts on current technical, economic and political issues that are influencing the automotive world.
MAY

DRIVING BANS IN EUROPEAN CITIES AFFECT 12.6 MILLION CARS DIRECTLY.

Andreas Radics, Executive Partner at Berylls Strategy Advisors on driving bans in European cities: “The number of cities that have restricted or want to reduce traffic from fossil fuel powered cars is growing steadily. Since 1 June, Darmstadt in Germany has also been one of these cities, with bans on driving through the city. The current Berylls analysis shows that around 12.6 million cars in Europe are affected by the restrictions and driving bans that already apply in local authorities or are to be introduced at short notice. The effectiveness of the measures has not yet been proven. It remains to be seen whether these driving restrictions are more than political moves, because the blocking of individual streets, such as those in Darmstadt or Hamburg, will reduce emissions at the measuring points. They can even increase exhaust pollution at other points by detours that have to be accepted.
Blocking entire cities or urban districts for cars with older exhaust classifications is also problematic from a social point of view. Many residents of the affected cities, but also many commuters, cannot buy a new car overnight that is not affected by the restrictions. Often, however, public transport, taxis or sharing services do not offer any alternatives to ensure mobility. For many city dwellers and commuters, a ban on driving cars in cities without training the other modes of transport is an expensive problem to which neither politicians nor local authorities have yet responded sufficiently. After all, the abolition of transit restrictions is already being discussed in Hamburg.
APRIL

THE TOP 10 WORLDWIDE E-CAR SALES FIGURES – STILL WITHOUT GERMAN PARTICIPATION.

Dr. Jan Burgard, Managing Partner of Berylls Strategy Advisors, analyses the top 10 best-selling e-cars in the world: “A look at the top 10 worldwide e-car sales figures is disillusioning from a German perspective, as there is currently no model from a German manufacturer. But it doesn’t look so bad on the home market at all. According to an evaluation by the Scientific Service of the Bundestag, around 80,000 electric cars are currently driving on our roads, including 53.4 percent German makes.
Meanwhile, market shares in other European countries are at a much lower level. In the model e-car market of Norway, 32.3 percent of all electricity comes from Germany; in Belgium the figure is 29.5 percent and in the Netherlands 20.9 percent. In contrast, Tesla and Asian manufacturers dominate worldwide. The BMW i3, formerly represented in this ranking, has not been included since the appearance of the Tesla 3.
The resounding success of the latest Tesla model shows just how great the customer’s demand for affordable e-mobility is that it does not come along as renouncement mobility. In fact, all Tesla models are in the top 5, but the German OEMs are prepared to be at the top of the race. The e-tron-, EQ-, i- and i.D.-models still adorn the cover pages of most car magazines and the halls of car shows, but if they are available in a larger portfolio for customers worldwide, the established electric car manufacturers will find it difficult to maintain their positions in the ranking. This assumption is confirmed, among other things, by the first comparative tests of German electric cars with their competitors by specialist magazines. After all, an electric car is first and foremost a car, and the German OEMs know how these must be designed and manufactured in the best possible way. This is why the next ranking of the best-selling e-cars worldwide should look quite different from the current one – more pleasing from the point of view of the German manufacturers”.

SHANGHAI AUTO SHOW, THE LEADING TRADE FAIR FOR THE AUTOMOTIVE WORLD.

Dr. Jan Burgard, Managing Partner at Berylls Strategy Advisors: “While the classic motor shows in Detroit, Geneva and Frankfurt are increasingly and more rapidly losing their significance, Shanghai Auto Show is going its own way. It initially developed into the leading Asian trade fair, but has not stopped at this level. Anyone looking to Shanghai Auto Show 2019 had already seen more there, namely the world’s leading trade fair for mobility. And while in 2017, the previous Shanghai trade fair year, the premium manufacturers of the old world were still setting the themes for the trade fair, this year for the first time they were facing serious competition from Chinese exhibitors on a broad front. They have finally abandoned their restraint and modesty, are playing a leading role in 2019 and have long since become more than brazen copiers of Western bestselling models. E-mobiles are more standard among Chinese exhibitors today than genuine trade fair news, electronic gadgets and large monitors in the dashboard inspire the young and affluent clientele in the world’s largest car market.
In addition, the domestic public can increasingly turn to Chinese cars not despite, but because of the quality offered, also because management competence from Europe and Germany helps to constantly improve Chinese products. And thus avoids a failure on a broad front, as in the early 2000s with the models of Landwind and Brilliance, being repeated on international markets. In fact, the courage to admit mistakes and learn from them is remarkable. At present, however, there is still no proof that the ambitions of the Chinese manufacturers are guaranteed to lead to success. Which of them will end up leading the race for international markets and which will disappear into meaninglessness is still completely open.
What is certain, however, is that China is becoming increasingly self-confident in the automotive world. Shanghai 2019 was the showcase with which the Chinese OEMs presented themselves to an astonished audience on the big stage. It is high time that Europe and the USA picked out some of the building blocks of China’s successful model to copy”.
FEBRUARY

BREXIT CAN SEVERELY DAMAGE THE UK’S AUTO INDUSTRY.

Only a few weeks left until the UK is scheduled to leave the EU with very little known about what is going to happen after 29 March.
Arthur Kipferler Partner at Berylls Strategy Advisors: “What is certain is that most investment decisions in a no-deal scenario would not be made for locations in the UK – there will be no Brexit winner in the automotive industry”.
OCTOBER

REGULATION OF CO2-EMISSIONS.

Dr Jan Burgard, managing partner at Berylls Strategy Advisors: “There is a lot suggesting that the 2030 CO2targets announced by the EU environment ministers will accelerate the demise of the internal combustion engine. Electric cars appear to be the panacea and reduce emissions by 35 %. After all, electric vehicles do not emit any carbon dioxide while driving – at least that is a widely held opinion. However, from well to wheel, they do not really improve the situation.
After all, electricity generation – including for electric cars – is still strongly dependent on fossil fuels in many EU countries. The climate does not care whether carbon dioxide comes from the exhaust pipe or whether it is released when lignite is burned to generate electricity or in energy-intensive battery production. I miss a technology-agnostic discussion of available solutions, which also includes the potential of the currently demonized diesel engine. We will need it in order to achieve the EU’s climate targets.”

UBER IS STILL NOT OUT OF THE WOODS, DESPITE STRONG GROWTH AND UPWARDS EARNINGS.

Dr. Matthias Kempf, Partner at Berylls Strategy Advisors: “Uber is still writing high losses, but it shows that these are shrinking despite the still extreme growth in turnover. Uber intends to go public in the second half of 2019, so great attention is being paid to posting a black zero or even an operating profit in the next two to three quarters. At the same time, its growth will slow down somewhat, but it will take away a larger share of passenger fees from chauffeurs and capitalise on its market power in this way.
With the investments in the complementary mobility fields of rental two-wheelers and delivery services as well as the focus on autonomous driving, I occupy the right or absolutely necessary fields, whereby I consider the hype about air taxis to be excessive. The great adversary DiDi in China follows the same pattern. For Europe I see a showdown of the two giants.”

SALES AND LICENSING RESTRICTIONS FOR VEHICLES WITH INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES.

Andreas Radics, managing partner at Berylls Strategy Advisors: “If the worldwide sales bans or restrictions on the operation of vehicles with combustion engines that have been announced already apply today, 50 percent of the current global sales volume would be affected.
All vehicle manufacturers will have to work flat out on an intelligent drive mix in order to prepare for this sharp drop in sales.”
SEPTEMBER

DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION OF SUPPLIERS.

Peter Eltze, expert for digital corporate transformation at Berylls Strategy Advisors: “Economic support is good and right, but it can only be an impulse for digital transformation. The money must fall on fertile ground in the companies, but this is not available from many suppliers. The promotion only promises success if the suppliers find a balance between optimizing existing business areas and developing new business ideas at the same time.
In many cases, they first have to develop a suitable strategic concept. The Berylls culture study shows how difficult this is for many companies. It shows that many suppliers currently do not have the organizational skills and abilities for digital transformation. The funding should therefore also serve to build up missing job profiles, such as those of the data analyst.”

VEHICLE SALES 2017: EVERY SECOND E-CAR WITH GB/T STANDARD.

Andreas Radics, managing partner at Berylls Strategy Advisors: “Once again European OEMs and suppliers from Asia seem to be threatened with trouble. In the current case, the Charging Interface Initiative (CharIN) is affected, in which almost all German car manufacturers, flanked by European companies in the automotive and energy industries, have organized themselves. Their aim is to create a globally uniform fast-charging standard for electric cars based on the CCS connector and the associated charging protocols.
So far with some success, because in Europe and the USA the CCS chargers are now dominant in the market. The new Plug & Charge service at CCS is intended to ensure even greater acceptance from next spring and will make the cumbersome handling of different loading cards superfluous. China and Japan, currently on the market with different charging systems (GB/T and CHAdeMO), are nevertheless going their own way and now intend to synchronize their development efforts to achieve a fast charging standard for e-cars.”
DIALOG

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