he transformation of trucking in Europe towards zero-emission vehicles is accelerating and must be accomplished within two decades.
Never since the switch from horse-drawn carriages to Diesel-powered trucks, has there been such fundamental change for the industry. Technologies are being replaced and value pools are being reallocated. But also, the daily use of trucks by their operators is changing: battery charging and range limitations heavily affect the usage and scheduling of electric vehicle fleets.
Batteries replace Diesel engines as being the most valuable single component of a truck. On a long-haul tractor with 600 kWh battery capacity, the energy storage
accounts for 60% of the total product costs. Even though this share will gradually
decrease because of improving economies of scale and evolving battery technology, batteries have a massive influence on the value of electric trucks throughout their life cycle. And here another difference to Diesel trucks comes into play: lifespans of vehicles and major components like the battery will increasingly be out of sync.
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EMs face increasing pressure to cut their environmental impact.
This means reducing their carbon footprint, but also their raw material and resources consumption, and making their operations and business model more sustainable (not focused solely on selling more and more cars). In response, OEMs are starting to put in place Refurbish, Remanufacture, Reuse, and Recycle (R4 or the “4Rs”) strategies to maximize their reuse of valuable materials.
Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors
However, their strategies are at the moment neither comprehensive nor consistent. On the one hand, they usually focus on end-of-life applications, such as recycling and reuse of vehicles and battery modules. Recycling and reuse are the “2Rs” that appear to be the most profitable at present (if you want to learn more, please also have a look on Berylls’ Battery Re-X study. On the other hand they tend not to consider an important prerequisite for their strategies: Being the legal owner of the vehicle throughout and particularly at the end of its lifetime (around 8-10 years).
During the 8-10 year period, OEMs will need to redeploy the car to different end customers for different types of contract, as part of a multi-cycle Vehicle-as-a-Service (VaaS) sales model, rather than selling the car outright when it is new (if you want to learn more about the Berylls point-of-view on VaaS, please have a look on our dedicated website.
This multi-cycle sales model will put vehicle condition in the spotlight, as it will be essential to maintain a certain standard of quality so the car is available for as many types of business models as possible.
Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors
Efficient refurbishment operations to maintain the quality of vehicles between different use cycles will therefore become a strategic enabler for both multi-cycle sales models and for OEMs’ holistic 4R strategies.
We believe that taking a lifetime view of vehicles and components has significant strategic and commercial benefits
Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors
THE IMPORTANCE OF 4R STRATEGIES in the context of business model and sustainability transformation is increasing rapidly and only few players are starting to get prepared. Now is the time to decide whether to bea pioneer or a laggard in two of the most relevant future fields of action!
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s the transition to electric mobility accelerates, Berylls’ six-point action plan will help OEMs and suppliers ride out the economic headwinds and improve digital customer engagement
This year could see the first inflation-driven global economic crisis for 40 years, as the combined impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine continues to disrupt supply chains and force up prices. The hopeful news is that most economists expect inflation rates worldwide to fall during 2023, as bottlenecks ease and energy prices come down. Nonetheless, even if a global recession is avoided, the cost of living will still be far higher for billions of consumers than before the pandemic struck.
Against this background, the automotive industry confronts a series of formidable challenges, all of which are exacerbated by inflation. Manufacturers and suppliers must cope with raw material shortages and price rises as they implement ambitious restructuring programs to keep pace with the transition to electric mobility. At the same time, the massive boost to online shopping triggered by COVID-19 lockdowns has created a new breed of digitally savvy but financially hard-pressed car buyers who are far choosier and less loyal to brands than before the pandemic.
Our report sets out how industry players can turn the current inflationary storm into an opportunity to gain a lead over competitors that cannot navigate the headwinds. The last global financial meltdown in 2008 and its aftermath offered agile, imaginative automotive companies precisely this kind of opening to seize the advantage. Consider, for instance, how Korea’s Hyundai Motor Group increased its North American market share from 5.3 percent in 2008 to 9.1 percent in 2011 by targeting customers who would not have considered buying a Hyundai or a Kia before the US subprime mortgage crisis.
The challenge today is to apply the same creative thinking in a market buffeted by inflation, where both consumer behavior and the automotive industry are evolving at unprecedented speed. After analyzing the industry’s response so far to the current inflation-driven slowdown, we make the following key recommendations for 2023 and beyond:
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s herrscht ein großer Druck für deutsche Autobauer - auf dem chinesischen Markt und auf unserem heimischen Markt in Deutschland und Europa.
Neben BYD gibt es auch neuere Marken wie NIO, MGmotor, Polestar, die unter Konstrukten wie Geely Global geführt werden. Das sind neuen Konkurrenten besonders im Premium-Segment, denn diese Hersteller haben sich ausschließlich auf den Elektromarkt konzertiert. Wenn Sie sich den europäischen Automarkt anschauen, der rückläufig ist, denn das einzige Segment, das wächst, ist das Thema Elektromobilität.
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hina’s automotive market once again displayed great resilience in 2022, despite severe challenges.
In total, 23.6 million passenger cars were sold, a year-on-year increase of 9.5 percent. This included the record-breaking figure of 6.5 million new energy vehicles (NEVs), a year-on-year rise of 94.3 percent, reinforcing China’s critical role in the worldwide shift to electric mobility.
Repeating their success in 2021, Chinese players proved the big winners in the NEV market, accounting for more than 80 percent of total NEV sales. Meanwhile, established foreign OEMs lagged behind. Even premium brands which in the past could depend on success in China struggled to cope with intensifying competition from domestic manufacturers as the transition to e-mobility accelerated.
The next international phase of this battle has now begun in earnest, with Chinese automotive companies taking on major global markets, focusing especially on western Europe. In 2022, China’s total vehicle exports reached another record high of 2.5 million passenger cars, a year-on-year increase of 56.7 percent.
Looking forward, market conditions in China will remain challenging for foreign OEMs, as more new Chinese players ramp up production and sales amid rapidly changing customer tastes and shifting government priorities. Nonetheless, there are still areas such as sustainability and the metaverse where foreign players can gain a competitive advantage, as we explain in this report.
During 2022, China’s economy continued to be affected by restrictive COVID-19 suppression measures while in October, the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) set the country’s direction for the next five years. In addition, Chinese manufacturers, like their international peers, were severely affected by the global chip shortage and rising raw material prices. Against this background, China’s automotive industry experienced a turbulent twelve months.
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he Viable System Model (VSM) can help automotive companies steer a path to sustainable profitability while managing their increasing organizational complexity
75 percent of companies are unable to grow profitably over the long term., according to Sebastian Raisch, Gilbert Probst and Peter Gomez, authors of Wege zum Wachstum. One of the main reasons for this, is called the “growth paradox”, which describes companies chasing growth in a way that creates complexity, which actually inhibits growth.
Many executives say that it is not the complexity of external market conditions that causes them problems but the control of complexity within their own organization. Internal processes and administrative structures build up as the company grows, making it difficult for executives to maintain direct contact with their business and customers. As a result, they lose the essential focus on developing the potential for success.
This is where the Viable System Model (VSM) developed by the cybernetician Stafford Beer can help organizations make their complexity controllable and embed the important principle of self-organization.
The goal of many reorganizations is to “manage” corporate complexity. However, Berylls’ research and feedback from our clients suggests that most such exercises in the automotive industry only achieve limited success. Martin Pfiffner, author of The Neurology of Business: Implementing the Viable System Model, has identified the following cardinal errors that mean reorganizations often fail to have the desired impact:
The VSM offers executives a framework for avoiding these errors and shows how they can solve the problems created by complexity. Its primary focus is not to define structures such as divisions and departments within a successful organization, but to define the relationships between them.
A fundamental principle of the VSM is that the operational units of a company must be organized as viable systems according to the same model. This principle, called “recursivity”, enables problem-solving strategies for dealing with complexity and creating order out of chaos across the organization.
Box: How the Viable System Model was created
Why VSM is especially relevant to automotive companies
Many major OEMs and suppliers are undertaking or considering hugely ambitious reorganization programs to keep pace with the industry’s accelerating transformation. The VSM, correctly applied, is a critical approach for managing these organizations’ increasing complexity while maintaining growth and staying ahead of competitors.
To manage the increasing complexity within automotive organizations, the VSM provides five key control functions:
Figure 1: Viable System Model in an automotive company
Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors, following Pfiffner (2020) - Die dritte Dimension der Organisierens
Berylls’ research and our work with clients globally confirm that the VSM has repeatedly delivered rapid, effective solutions. Here are our key insights about how the VSM can be applied to achieve the only success that counts – satisfying customers to generate sustainable, long-term profitability:
Putting the customer first
It is crucial to design the organization’s dominant control dimension correctly to ensure that the business is structured in such a way that it focuses on the customer’s purchasing criteria and can implement the defined strategy effectively. Potential control dimensions include products, technologies, customer groups, applications, or regions.
Examples:
Premium OEMs: Cars, Vans, Service & Parts, Digital Services, Financial Services
Automotive Software Suppliers: Car Operating System, Omni Channel Commerce, After Sales, Production Automation, Enabler Technologies
Determining how far to decentralize:
Within operating business units, it is important to ensure that managers are responsible for the competencies and resources that determine success (System 1, see Figure 1). This autonomy should cover all functions that have a direct influence on the criteria that determine purchasing, such as product development.
At the same time, responsibility for organization-wide functions such as IT cannot be delegated, while central management may need to maintain control of plants or production capacities shared by operating units to achieve synergies between them (System 2).
The right degree of centralization can be calculated by asking the following questions:
Firstly, can we afford decentralization?
If the answer is yes, will decentralizing a task influence one or more key customer purchasing criteria?
If the answer is no, can a synergy be achieved by continuing to centralize the task?
If the answer is again no, the task should be assigned to the relevant unit because of the principle of subsidiarity.
Flattening further than conventional wisdom suggests
“How many direct reports can be managed?” is the wrong question. In our experience the traditional rule that there should be a maximum of seven “direct reports” fails in most cases. The correct approach is to look at horizontal and vertical complexity and consider how much autonomy operational units need to perform at their best and whether they need more or less support from senior management (horizontal complexity). In addition, reorganization programs should address whether senior management has sufficient scope for intervention to limit the autonomy of operating units in the interests of the whole company (vertical complexity).
At one automotive supplier, a VSM diagnosis showed that the organization could be flattened from five to four management levels by dissolving three business units and converting ten new product units into fully-fledged operational units. This flattening was possible because the product divisions were different and to a large extent able to manage their complexity independently. Furthermore, senior management had significant vertical complexity control to ensure overall optimization of the product areas (System 3).
Navigating into the unknown
In the automotive industry, navigating a rapidly changing environment must also be organized, with senior management taking the lead (System 4). Senior executives and senior operation leader (System 4 and 3) must balance what is right for today’s business with what is important for the future, while identifying external opportunities and threats. The last function to be designed is normative management (System 5) which defines the business mission and formulates governance policies which establish the guard rails within which strategic and operational management can function. This interplay of operational, strategic and normative management is of utmost importance to a successful transformation.
The timely redirection of human and financial capital from the old to the new business is both the most difficult and important task currently confronting the automotive industry. Figure 2 shows this interplay and the shift from the lower S-curve to the upper S-curve. However, too many senior automotive managers lack sufficient time to devote to strategic questions such as how much to invest in electromobility, connectivity or ADAS development because they are mired in operational issues which absorb most of their attention.
Figure 2: Adaptability – When do we change course?
Source: Malik, Berylls Strategy Advisors
By applying the VSM, an increasing number of OEMs and suppliers have executed successful organizational transformations that free up management time while delivering the critical interplay of operational, strategic and normative management. In plain terms, they are at least one step ahead of their competitors in seizing the opportunities created by this period of industry transition and transformation.
ine erfolgreiche Transformation ist nur möglich, wenn die Führungskräfte die entsprechenden Qualitäten mitbringen.
Der Begriff der Transformation ist allgegenwärtig und auch in der Automobilindustrie nicht mehr wegzudenken. Es geht darum, dass das Unternehmen sich umorientiert. Dass das Unternehmen Dinge neu erlernen -sowie eingeschlagene Pfade verlassen muss.
Wenn wir von der Transformation sprechen, müssen wir auch über die Transformation der Führungskräfte sprechen.
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o you want to know what excites us most about transformation? Get to know the members of our team to find out!
Associate Partner
After graduation, I started as an executive assistant and was immediately appointed to the core team of a company-wide business reengineering program. From then on, the topic of transformation has been at the center of my work. Both in my next job as a member of the management team in a medium-sized company and then later as a consultant, the support of strategically-induced major change processes was always the focus.
In St. Gallen, I learned the systemic approach and the foundational interplay of strategy, structure, culture, and leadership, which is still part of my methodology for transformation projects at Berylls.
It always excites me to realign or revitalize organizations and help them elevate to a higher level of performance. The greatest thing for me is when we succeed in inspiring executives and employees along this journey, so that they can support the transformation and further develop themselves throughout the process. Only then will the changes we have initiated be put into practice and bear fruit. It is also a pleasure to support companies in this transformational process over a longer period while building lasting relationships.
Ultimately, a transformation is like an open-heart surgery, often exhausting because of its dynamic and complex nature, but at the same time it is very fulfilling when success becomes visible and sustainable.
I regularly work for automotive OEMs and suppliers. For larger transformation projects, my clients are typically from the C-suite level or are their direct reports. For management system topics, I usually work closely with subject matter experts and change agents.
Project Manager
Originally via strategy work. We always discuss a holistic approach with our clients, and the best strategy only helps if it can also be implemented. My first transformation client had expressed their wish for our implementation support to bring our strategy to life. From then on, I didn’t want to just drop the pen after strategy development.
It’s also very nice to actually be able to see the results of one’s work!
I’m excited about linking strategy and implementation. The best strategy can only be implemented if it is supported by the employees and if the organization is adapted in such a way that enables employees to impact change. At the end of the day, it’s always the people that matter.
So far, I’ve worked with premium OEMs where I have focused on sales, marketing, and HR. I work with both middle and senior management levels.
Associate Partner
I was first thrown into the deep end during my second consulting project, but then quickly discovered my passion. In terms of methodology, it fits perfectly with my focus on software-defined vehicles, where there is a huge need for transformation. This allows me to advise my customers not only on content, but also directly on the transformation process.
I see two factors there: firstly, I enjoy working with people to help them grow and succeed – this makes our work more tangible than pure strategy concepts.
Secondly, the measurable impact that the transformation work has enables me and my clients to assess how things have improved after only a few months! Our concepts go directly into implementation and don’t disappear into a drawer.
My focus is on OEMs, mostly within central organizational development. My contacts range from mid-level-management to C-suite level. My smallest transformation project involved 100 FTEs while my largest involved 20,000 FTEs.
Senior Consultant
As a psychologist, I have a natural interest in change and transformation. But I quickly realized that pure methodological knowledge alone is not enough. Strong content know-how is also required to have a real impact. That’s why I combine strategy and transformation consulting.
That it goes beyond pure strategy work. Good strategy work is still essential, but transformation also gives me the opportunity to implement these strategies and achieve tangible results.
Another relevant aspect for me is the fact that there is organizational development in every transformation. Ultimately, we are changing the environment in which thousands of people work every day – it is impressive to see how transformations can change this for the better.
My projects are close to top management, as they are usually game-changer projects for my clients. The size of the transformation project team varies. The largest one was staffed with almost 1000 employees from our client and other consulting companies.
n der Automobilzuliefer-Branche häufen sich bereits seit einiger Zeit die Krisenfälle.
Aber mit dem richtigen Konzept für die Zukunft kann es wieder nach oben gehen. Die Berylls Group GmbH mit Hauptsitz in München hat über ihren Beteiligungsarm Berylls Equity Partners den insolventen Automobilzulieferer Huhn übernommen – unterstützt durch eine Fremdkapitallösung von Creditshelf.
Von Alexander Görbing
Vor zwei Jahren kam die schlechte Nachricht, die Heinrich Huhn-Gruppe musste Insolvenz anmelden. Im Verlauf des Insolvenzverfahrens konnte mit der Berylls Group GmbH ein strategischer Investor gefunden werden, der über eine umfangreiche Erfahrung in der Mobilitäts- und Zuliefererbranche verfügt. Im Rahmen eines Insolvenzverfahrens müssen alle Beteiligten eng zusammenarbeiten – und das unter hohem Zeitdruck. Wenn hier die Zahnräder nicht reibungslos ineinandergreifen, dann kann die geplante Unternehmensrettung auch noch an Kleinigkeiten scheitern. Wie das Zusammenspiel der einzelnen Parteien idealerweise, funktioniert, zeigte sich dagegen beim Automobilzulieferer Huhn aus Drolshagen in der Nähe von Siegen in Nordrhein-Westfalen.
„Es ist immer sehr wichtig, dass alle Player im Prozess sehr gut informiert sind, dass es einen Zeitplan gibt und dass dieser dann auch eingehalten wird. In einem Insolvenzverfahren bauen viele Entscheidungen aufeinander auf und es gilt Fristen einzuhalten, um zu vermeiden, dass zeitkritische Folgeprobleme entstehen können“, erklärt Stefan Hnida, Leiter Partnermanagement bei der Creditshelf AG. Seit mehr als zwei Jahren setzen sich Teams bei Creditshelf auch mit Finanzierungen im Bereich von Distressed M&A auseinander. Bislang gab es schon ein gutes Dutzend Fälle, die mit Fremdkapitallösungen ermöglicht wurden. „Ermöglichen ist genau das richtige Stichwort, denn wir verstehen uns bei diesen Transaktionen als eine Art ´Deal-Enabler´ für einen strukturierten Verkauf“, fährt Hnida fort. Angesichts der Vielzahl an Herausforderungen weltweit, rechnet er für die kommenden Monate mit mehr Geschäft in diesem Bereich. Das liege nicht nur an den Nachwirkungen der Corona-Pandemie und der aktuellen Kosten- und Lieferkettenkrise, sondern auch an der zunehmenden Zurückhaltung von klassischen Banken. „Wir agieren sicher etwas risikofreudiger als traditionelle Geldgeber – aber wir lassen uns das auch entsprechend bezahlen“, so Hnida weiter.
Im Fall der Heinrich Huhn-Gruppe ging das Team von Creditshelf ähnlich vor wie bei vergleichbaren Finanzierungsentscheidungen im Bereich Automotive. Ein Kriterium bei der Entscheidung ist unter anderem der Umfang der Wertschöpfungskette. Weiterhin werden auch die Marktchancen im Bereich der Elektromobilität überprüft, während die Lieferung von Komponenten für den konventionellen Antriebsstrang eher negativ bewertet wird. „Die Unternehmen, die wir uns ansehen, sind oftmals im Kern grundsolide und haben ein tragfähiges Geschäftsmodell. Trotzdem können sie durch unerwartete Entwicklungen in eine Liquiditätskrise geraten“, so Hnida. Insgesamt sei die gesamte Branche sehr finanzierungsintensiv, durch hohe Aufwendungen im Bereich Investitionen, Lagerhaltung sowie Forschung und Entwicklung. Bei der Frage einer Finanzierungsbeteiligung sei es aber ebenso wichtig zu erfahren, welche Pläne der neue Investor mit dem Unternehmen hat und welche Wachstumsstory es geben soll.
Die Heinrich Huhn-Gruppe beschäftigt rund 500 Mitarbeiter an ihren Standorten in Drolshagen sowie bei der Tochtergesellschaft in Vráble (Slowakei). Das Unternehmen, das auf eine über 100jährige Geschichte zurückblicke kann, beliefert weltweit Abnehmer aus der Automobilbranche mit Metallumformteilen für Bremskraftverstärker, Lenksäulen, Getriebe, Lager sowie mit weiteren Baugruppen im Automobilbereich. 1912 gegründet, war die Heinrich Huhn Deutschland GmbH ein Familienunternehmen, das bis in die vierte Generation in der Hand der Gründerfamilie blieb. Die Herausforderungen für den Automobilzulieferer, wie die die Dieselkrise und die weltweite Corona-Pandemie, waren dann die Auslöser für eine existenzbedrohende finanzielle Schieflage. „Als wir auf die Huhn-Gruppe aufmerksam wurden, waren wir schnell der Ansicht, dass wir für die herausfordernde Situation des Unternehmens eine schnelle und effektive Lösung finden können. Das war für uns dann der Auslöser, um uns intensiver mit einer möglichen Übernahme zu beschäftigen“, erklärt Andreas Rauh, Geschäftsführer bei Berylls Equity Partners GmbH. Der sofort eingeleitete Transformationsprozess wurde dann allerdings im vergangenen Jahr durch die Halbleiterkrise empfindlich gestört. „Es hat sich im Nachhinein als sehr gut erwiesen, dass wir bei unserem Übernahmekonzept ein paar Sicherheitspolster vorgesehen haben“, fährt Rauh fort. Trotz aller Widrigkeiten befinde man sich auf einem guten Weg, denn – so fügt er an: „sicherheitsrelevante Teile in den Bereichen Lenkung und Fahrwerk im Auto werden immer gebraucht, selbstverständlich auch beim E-Auto“.
Die Berylls Group GmbH hat neben dem Hauptgeschäft der Top-Level-Management-Beratung in 2020 ihren Beteiligungsarm Berylls Equity Partners gegründet, um mit eigenem Kapital in kriselnde Unternehmen der Mobilitätsindustrie zu investieren. „Wir haben auf der Beraterseite so viele erfolgreiche Unternehmenstransaktionen begleitet, dass wir uns das auch selbst zugetraut haben“, sagt Rauh. Inzwischen gab es in jedem Jahr eine Übernahme und das Berylls-Team hält weiter die Augen offen. Durch die gute Vernetzung in der Automotive-Branche bekomme man frühzeitig Hinweise so wie schnelle Einschätzungen über die Krisenursachen und Marktchancen möglicher Übernahmekandidaten. „Wir wissen relativ schnell, ob es sich bei einem Unternehmen lohnt, tiefer in die Zahlen einzusteigen. Entscheidend ist für uns an erster Stelle immer unsere Einschätzung der Nachhaltigkeit des Geschäftsmodells. Nur wenn wir bei Berylls Equity Partners von ihr überzeugt sind, prüfen wir detaillierter, ob sich ein Investment lohnen kann“, erklärt Rauh weiter. Im Mittelpunkt steht immer, die Firmen im Berylls Portfolio langfristig erfolgreich zu entwickeln.
Bei der Heinrich Huhn-Gruppe läuft derzeit die Aufbau-Arbeit nach der überstandenen Insolvenz weiter. „Aktuell haben wir mit den Unsicherheiten durch die Entwicklung bei den Energiekosten zu kämpfen“, erklärt Jens Lange, seit 01. Juli 2022 Geschäftsführer der Heinrich Huhn Gruppe. Die hohen Tarifabschlüsse in der Metallbranche seien auch nicht hilfreich. Beide Faktoren – zusammen mit einem unverändert unsicheren Abrufverhalten der Hersteller – könnten nach seiner Ansicht besonders im Jahr 2023 zu weiteren Krisen in der Automotive-Branche führen. Bei der Heinrich-Huhn-Gruppe setzt man langfristig darauf, neue Geschäftsfelder zu erschließen. „Wir sehen Energiespeichersysteme, die in Zukunft verstärkt im Stromnetz eingesetzt werden, als eine Technologie mit viel Potenzial für die Zukunft. Da wollen wir ganz vorne mit dabei sein“, so Lange. Aktuell sei das Unternehmen noch „100 Prozent Automotive“ – aber man wolle sich beim Know-how breiter aufstellen. Geplant ist außerdem die Erschließung neuer Kundengruppen. Parallel sollen die Aktivitäten am zweiten Standort des Unternehmens in der Slowakei als auch außerhalb Europas auf- bzw. ausgebaut werden. Denn auch bei der Huhn Gruppe kann man sich einem generellen Trend in der Industrie nicht verschließen. Die aktuellen Bedingungen insbesondere bei den Energiekosten führen branchenweit zu einem Verlagerungsdruck.
Firmeninfo: Heinrich Huhn Gruppe
Branche: Automobilzulieferer
Gründung: 1912
Mitarbeitende: 500
Umsatz: ca. 100 Mio. EUR
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