Electromobility drives growth of new business models

Munich, July 2023

Electromobility drives growth of new business models

Munich, July 2023
R

ecent years have been tough for the automotive industry, with global supply difficulties caused by the Covid pandemic compounded by rising interest rates. Yet demand for battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) is soaring and production of all vehicles is forecasted to rise consistently until 2030.

Against a backdrop of mixed signals and deep industry changes, it is time to ask which business models will prove the way forward for auto manufacturing

Although worldwide car production for all drive systems is forecast to rise by an annual 2.2% until 2030, it is the BEV segment that is growing fastest. The BEV share is set to increase by as much as 22.4 percentage points and by 2030 will make up 40% of the market. Much of this market share is being captured by start-ups, which often drive innovation. So is the start-up model the pattern for the future?

E-mobility in the driving seat

If we include start-ups that concentrate on hardware or software and which supply products used both inside the vehicle (“on-board”) as well as outside (“off-board”), the number of automotive start-ups has risen significantly since 2019. Despite worldwide economic instability and insecurity, and excluding purely service-focused or marketplace-focused businesses, the total of automotive start-ups has risen by an annual 6.6%.

This growth is due mainly to newly emerging business models in electromobility segments including charging infrastructure (+24%), vehicle components (+19%) and whole vehicles (+23%) segments. Within these segments, growth is strongest in the Americas and in APAC. Europe and the Middle East remain of minor importance when it comes to start-ups.

The charging infrastructure segment is becoming more attractive because the global network of charging stations for electric vehicles is expanding rapidly: this segment is expected to grow by an annual 30% to 2030. Start-ups such as the American Electra and China’s Xingyuan Borui are pushing the segment forward by expanding intelligent positioning solutions for the nearest charging stations and by developing rapid charging systems. The increasing need for a universal charging infrastructure is an ideal opportunity for new companies to close the gap in innovative technologies. In Europe it is Scandinavian countries such as Norway, Denmark and Sweden that are vying for first place in this growth story.

We see comparable start-up growth in the vehicle components and whole vehicles segments – and once again the growth is being driven by rising sales figures for electric vehicles. In Europe alone, sales of electric vehicles are set to rise by an annual 25% by 2030. The transition to electromobility therefore offers start-ups a good growth medium in which to establish new business models. One example is eLeapPower, an emerging start-up from Canada, which has already been able to make a name for itself in the electric powertrain field by developing and launching an integrated inverter designed for rapid BEV charging from renewable sources.

Although the hype and investment interest around autonomous driving (AD) is currently declining with only two new start-ups, it remains one of the four core pillars of future mobility alongside connectivity, electromobility and shared mobility. The falling demand for robo-taxis and autonomous driving vehicles (at AD Level 4 and Level 5) is largely due to regulatory limits and tough product-certification and release processes, while the areas in which these vehicles could be employed are not yet widely accepted. This in turn means that the high investment cost of AD solutions currently promises neither a near-term profit nor a short-term amortization prospect for investors.

However, it is important to take a regional view of autonomous driving. China is already ahead of other markets due to its favorable AD regulatory requirements. The numerous autonomous systems shown at the Shanghai Motor Show 2023 will also accelerate global competition and help set new standards. In the US, preliminary AD laws are being passed and implemented in individual states, while at the bottom of the list Europe is still at the early stage of legislative drafting for AD.

Figure 1: Growth in start-ups between 2019 and 2023
[Number of start-ups]

Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors

Start-ups in China and South Korea are winning funding

From 2019 to 2022, a total of $11.3bn was invested in the financing of automotive start-ups. Of this, 87% was earmarked for vehicle components ($4.7bn) and whole vehicles ($5.2bn). A measure of investor interest in both business areas was the fact that on average an individual start-up raised more than $140m per financing round – by contrast, start-up companies in the fleet management field were financed with an average of only $30m.  

Asian start-ups scored particularly well here, with around 70% of the total investment volume flowing to Chinese and South Korean suppliers. Prominent Asian examples of start-up companies are South Korean battery maker SK On, Zeekr (the EV brand of China’s Geely Automobile) and China’s EV start-up Voyah.

SK On was founded in 2021 and has already established itself as a leading battery manufacturer in the automobile value chain. SK On has attracted more than $4bn in investment, making the company the best-financed electromobility start-up by a wide margin. Zeekr is concentrating on the development of premium electric vehicles, attracting total investment of $1.6bn, while its direct Chinese competitor Voyah, a premium BEV maker, has attracted $702m to date.  

Figure 2: Start-ups with highest financing after establishment 2019 and total investment
[mil. $]

Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors

It is therefore clear that electromobility is currently an important driving force and innovation engine for the broader car industry. This applies not only to the whole vehicle, but also to components and charging infrastructure. The fact that most start-up companies do not come from Europe is both a warning signal and a growth opportunity. While the battery technology segment is already occupied and offers only limited scope for European start-ups, the situation looks quite different in the field of enabler technologies such as power electronics, charging infrastructure or network infrastructure. And with eLeapPower, battery-design software developer Electra and automotive Internet of Things infrastructure specialist Staex, there are now plenty of candidates vying for market share in automotive’s new frontier.

Authors
Dr. Alexander Timmer

Partner

Fritz Metzger

Partner

Malte Broxtermann

Partner

Sven Zellner

Consultant

Dr. Alexander Timmer

Dr. Alexander Timmer (1981) joined Berylls by AlixPartners (formerly Berylls Strategy Advisors), an international strategy consultancy specializing in the automotive industry, as a partner in May 2021. He is an expert in market entry and growth strategies, M&A and can look back on many years of experience in the operations environment. Dr. Alexander Timmer has been advising automotive manufacturers and suppliers in a global context since 2012. He has in-depth expert knowledge in the areas of portfolio planning, development and production. His other areas of expertise include digitalization and the complex of topics surrounding electromobility.
Prior to joining Berylls Strategy Advisors, he worked for Booz & Company and PwC Strategy&, among others, as a member of the management team in North America, Asia and Europe.
After studying mechanical engineering at RWTH Aachen University and Chalmers University in Gothenburg, he earned his doctorate in manufacturing technologies at the Machine Tool Laboratory of RWTH Aachen University.

Fritz Metzger

Fritz Metzger (1986) joined Berylls by AlixPartners (formerly Berylls Strategy Advisors), an international strategy consultancy specializing in the automotive industry, in February 2021. He is an expert on automotive operations.

Since 2011, his focus has been on strategic alignment and operational efficiency improvement of automotive manufacturers and suppliers. He also advises top management in critical situations, including R&D and industrialization task forces and relocation and restructuring initiatives of plants and complete suppliers. The challenges of e-mobility are always in focus.

Before joining Berylls, he was a director at international strategy consultants PwC Strategy&, as well as a sales and project manager at a medium-sized supplier and mechanical engineering company.

Fritz Metzger is a trained industrial engineer with a degree from ESB Business School Reutlingen. He also holds an MBA from the University of Salzburg.

Malte Broxtermann

Malte is an expert in the development and implementation of automotive digitization strategies.

He focuses on helping clients scale (generative) artificial intelligence to improve their bottom line across the entire automotive value chain. His primary customers are automotive manufacturers and their suppliers, especially those active in the Software-Defined-Vehicle space.

Before his time at Berylls by AlixPartners (formerly Berylls Strategy Advisors), he advised leading North American utility companies. Prior to that, he saved lives as emergency medical technician. Malte holds master’s degrees in economics from Maastricht University and Queen’s University in Canada.