pressemeldung_top100_2017_studie4. June 2018
THE AUTOMOBILE LANDSCAPE 2030.
In 2019, the first commercial robo-taxis will start operating in public transport, and the cars will progressively increase their autonomous capabilities over the next years.
The experts at Berylls Strategy Advisors expect that, by 2030, autonomous driving cars (level 4 and 5) will make up some 13 percent of new vehicle registrations in the U.S. market. About 70 percent of them will take to the roads as personal autonomous cars, and the other 30 percent as robo-taxis in carpool and carsharing fleets.
The forecasts are from the current Berylls Report “An Autonomous Future: The Automotive Landscape 2030.” It illustrates the future development of autonomous personal transportation in the USA, and evaluates the future market potential for the automotive industry as a manufacturer and supplier of autonomous mobility.
DECREASING COSTS INCREASE ATTRACTIVENESS.
The market potential for the technologies associated with autonomous driving will rise to $13 billion by 2030 in the USA alone. To this can be added $4.8 billion annual revenue in sharing and fleet business with autonomous vehicles, where the traditional OEMs will encounter strong competition, including from the tech industry. Autonomous cars will become established on the market at the rate at which the costs decrease.
The key factors are continuing technological progress and greater economies of scale. Berylls’ analyses show that pure technology costs for autonomous driving will fall by 90 percent over the next decade from their current $70,000 to $6,400 per vehicle in 2030.
The answer to this question is relevant for all the future strategic business models in the automotive industry concerning autonomous driving. Berylls report gives a detailed examination of the key target groups for autonomous driving in terms of their differing preferences for vehicle possession and use.
The most important consumer group for car and ride sharing options with autonomous vehicles are the “never boughts”. Customer analyses demonstrate that this target group is especially open to new technologies and business models.
Fleet operators must demonstrate their user friendliness by offering attractive prices, short waiting times and a reliable supply, even during peak demand, to win market share. With Berylls’ simulation model, suppliers can perform an analysis of the prerequisites and available measures oriented to local circumstances. This allows fleet operators to assess their opportunities and the economic viability, and thus optimize their benefit for any city in the USA.
“The good news is that the train has not yet left the station. Even companies that are not yet taking part in a business model based on autonomous driving can jump on the bandwagon. But the window of new opportunities is closing rapidly. It’s high time to act now, recommends Arthur Kipferler, partner at Berylls Strategy Advisors.